SIMPREDICT (WORKING PAPER): info

What is SIMPREDICT

SIMPREDICT is a simulation-based tool designed to support the interpretation of risk stratification models, particularly for diseases with a low-to-moderate incidence, typically between 25 and 200 per 100,000 person-years. This range represents a key challenge in clinical prediction: identifying individuals at sufficiently high risk to justify further investigation or intervention. SIMPREDICT helps users explore whether a given model, based on its C-statistic, is likely to identify a clinically meaningful subgroup under different incidence scenarios.

How to use

The TASK tab
The TASK tab allows you to explore SIMPREDICT simulation results. Currently there are two tasks:
Task 101 C-statistic to absolute risk: Enter your model’s C-statistic and view projected PPV, sensitivity, and test positivity rates at a range of thresholds.
Task 102 C-statistics and absolute risks to minimal incidence required to identify a clinically meaningful subgroup: Check whether your model can identify a subgroup that meets your preferred criteria (e.g. PPV >5% and SR >10%), and find the lowest incidence where this is feasible.

The graph tab allows you to visualise SIMPREDICT simulation results according to C-statistics and incidence.