SIMPREDICT (WORKING PAPER): info

What is SIMPREDICT

SIMPREDICT is a simulation-based tool for risk stratification model developers, emphasising the risks of conditions of low-to-moderate incidence, typically between 25 and 200 per 100,000 person-years. Incidence within this range represents a key challenge in identifying individuals with a sufficiently high risk that is clinically actionable.

How to use

Via the TASK tab you can:

Estimate the absolute risks [Task 201] The input is the C-statistic and the outputs are the estimations of positive predictive values (PPV), sensitivity rates (SR), and test-positive rates (TR).

Identify the minimal incidence required to find a clincally meaningful test-positive group [Task 202] The inputs are the C-statistics and the absolute risk criteria for such a clinically meaningful group to minimal incidence required to identify a clinically meaningful test-positive group. The output is the incidence required in your testing sample.

See the likely precision of you estimates [Task 301] The inputs are the expected C-statistics, disease incidence, and the criteria of determining test positivity. The outputs are the likely interquartile ranges of C-statistics and absolute risks.

In addition, the Graph tab allows you to to visualise SIMPREDICT simulation results according to C-statistics and incidence.